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The currency manipulation game

The trade war between the United States and China is heating up again, with US President Donald Trump abruptly announcing plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on the US$300 billion worth of imports fro ...More

EJ Insight2019-08-12

Central banks should forget about 2% inflation

The US Federal Reserve has some reasons to cut interest rates at its July 31 meeting, or subsequently if the US economy weakens. (There is also a case for holding rates steady, if growth remains as st ...More

EJ Insight2019-07-26

The real cost of Trump’s tariffs

Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump suddenly revealed that a trade agreement between the United States and China was not imminent after all. On the contrary, on May 10, the Trump administrat ...More

EJ Insight2019-05-24

Moore problems for the Fed?

One of US President Donald Trump’s two intended nominees to fill vacancies on the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors – Herman Cain – has now withdrawn. Trump’s other potential pick, Stephen Moore, ...More

EJ Insight2019-04-29

Xi and Trump miss their chance

  President Donald Trump has postponed until at least April the supposed deadline for concluding the United States’ current trade negotiations with China. A good outcome for both sides would be reache ...More

EJ Insight2019-03-22

The euro's first 20 years

  Since its introduction two decades ago, the euro has faced serious challenges. So far, it has survived intact. Yet, on the common currency’s 20th anniversary, it is worth identifying problems that h ...More

EJ Insight2019-01-28

A trade war is no reason to ease monetary policy

The world is in a trade war, and there is no sign of peace breaking out anytime soon. By now, the disruption to trade appears extensive enough to factor negatively into forecasts for economic growth. ...More

EJ Insight2018-11-27

換個名字總比搞垮貿易機制好

美國總統特朗普成功以新的《美墨加協定》(USMCA)取代原有的《北美自由貿易協定》(NAFTA)時,表現得好像 ...全文

今日信報EJ GlobalEJ GLOBAL plus 彙編選輯Jeffrey Frankel2018年10月13日

The new and not improved NAFTA

US President Donald Trump acts as if he has pulled off a smashing victory by replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) – supposedly “the worst trade deal ever” – with the new United St ...More

EJ Insight2018-10-10

Trump's currency confusion continues

Next month, the US Department of the Treasury is due to submit to Congress its biannual report detailing which countries, if any, are manipulating their currencies to gain an unfair trade advantage. F ...More

EJ Insight2018-09-21

The depth of the next US recession

The United States economy is doing well. But the next recession – and there is always another recession – could be very bad. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that GDP growth in the second ...More

EJ Insight2018-08-28

貿戰之下如何保護工人

《華盛頓郵報》/沙爾學院7月11日發布的美國民意調查顯示,只有39%受訪者認同美國總統特朗普對外國徵收關稅,5 ...全文

今日信報理財投資博集先機Robert J. Shiller2018年07月27日

My apology tour

American presidents are supposed to take America’s side when dealing with other countries. When Barack Obama was (falsely) accused of starting his term with a Middle East “apology tour”, it was unders ...More

EJ Insight2018-07-24

The economic message from equity markets

The recent stock-market correction – the first in the United States in two years – has invited substantial commentary about what investors should do, the role machines have played, and the implication ...More

EJ Insight2018-02-26

Making America's deficits great again

  US President Donald Trump and congressional Republican allies have succeeded in passing their big tax legislation. While it lacks many of the desirable attributes of true tax reform, it amounts to a ...More

EJ Insight2018-01-16

Does trade fuel inequality?

Inequality has become a major political preoccupation in the advanced economies – and for good reason. In the United States, according to the recently released World Inequality Report 2018, the share ...More

EJ Insight2018-01-03

Reagan's tax reforms revisited

Congressional Republicans must, President Donald Trump has commanded, pass their sweeping US tax bill by Christmas. Otherwise, they will have no major accomplishment to show for an entire year during ...More

EJ Insight2017-11-27

The next Federal Reserve chair

US President Donald Trump’s administration is expected, by Nov. 2, to announce its choice, subject to Senate approval, to succeed Janet Yellen as chair of the Federal Reserve Board in February 2018. T ...More

EJ Insight2017-10-27

Why financial markets underestimate risk

During most of 2017, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has been at the lowest levels of the last decade. Recently, the VIX dipped below nine, even lower than in March 2007, jus ...More

EJ Insight2017-09-26

Mnuchin’s mission

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is hemmed in on all sides. Domestically, he is trapped between the promises he has made (such as the “Mnuchin rule” that taxes wouldn’t be cut for the rich), the a ...More

EJ Insight2017-03-23

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