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From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation

The world economy is undergoing a radical regime shift. The decades-long Great Moderation is over. Coming after the stagflation (high inflation and severe recessions) of the 1970s and early 1980s, the ...More

EJ Insight2022-08-11

Chess and geopolitics in the supercomputer era

For centuries, chess has been a metaphor for war in myth and in literature. In the next world championship match, which will take place in 2023 between Russia’s Ian Nepomniachtchi and China’s Ding Lir ...More

EJ Insight2022-08-10

Why the Inflation Reduction Act is a big deal

US Senate Democrats’ compromise bill, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, addresses not just inflation but also several key longstanding problems facing our economy and society. There is a simm ...More

EJ Insight2022-08-09

Biden’s summer of legislative love

When it comes to the United States Congress, nothing is ever over until it’s over. But as of late July, it looks as though two major pieces of legislation will soon be on President Joe Biden’s desk, a ...More

EJ Insight2022-08-08

Counting queers

“What is your sexual orientation?” In Brazil, where queer people have historically been ignored and excluded from official statistics, this question holds special significance for the LGBTQ+ community ...More

EJ Insight2022-08-08

Ending the age of scarcity

The current escalation of multiple, overlapping crises – climate-related disasters, a pandemic, war in Europe, and stagflation – is intensifying anxiety and uncertainty the world over. Conventional so ...More

EJ Insight2022-08-05

America’s China challenge

At this year’s Aspen Security Forum (which I co-chair) in July, China’s ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, appealed for better understanding of his country. But there was considerable debate a ...More

EJ Insight2022-08-05

The G20 in an age of war

Last October’s G20 Leaders’ Summit – held in Rome, and hosted by then-Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi – produced a declaration brimming with promises to “address today’s most pressing global chall ...More

EJ Insight2022-08-05

Russia’s looming defeat in Ukraine

It is easy to see who is losing the most from the Russian invasion of Ukraine: Ukrainian civilians, victims of war crimes and missile terror, and the millions around the world for whom food is now mor ...More

EJ Insight2022-08-04

America’s wage-price persistence

Recent price- and wage-growth data make it increasingly clear that the US economy’s underlying inflation rate is at least 4% and more likely to be rising than falling. Although the Federal Reserve has ...More

EJ Insight2022-08-03

Fiscal policy should return to fundamentals

Recent large interest-rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank suggest that monetary policymakers are intent on moving forcefully to bring down inflation. But where are the s ...More

EJ Insight2022-08-02

The ECB’s political overreach

In mid-June, as the yield on Italian ten-year bonds was rising to around 250 basis points above that of German bonds, the European Central Bank felt it necessary to hold a special Governing Council me ...More

EJ Insight2022-07-29

A decade of 'whatever it takes'

This month marks an important anniversary. On July 26, 2012, the European Central Bank’s relatively new president, Mario Draghi, famously declared that, “the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to pr ...More

EJ Insight2022-07-27

Confronting the growing drought risk

Drought may be an ancient scourge, but it is getting worse. No region or country today is immune to its effects. Southern Europe is in the grip of a severe drought – the worst in 70 years for Italy. I ...More

EJ Insight2022-07-26

Why Sri Lanka imploded

As Sri Lanka’s economy unravels before our eyes, one must ask how this could happen in a country that is historically known for its high standard of living and stable economy. Sri Lanka’s achievements ...More

EJ Insight2022-07-22

The problem with the current Russia sanctions regime

It has been five months since Europe and the United States imposed tough economic and financial sanctions on Russia, a G20 country that was the world’s eleventh-largest economy on the eve of its invas ...More

EJ Insight2022-07-22

The world needs a digital lifeline

In periods of crisis, digital technologies provide a lifeline that keeps people, communities, and businesses functioning. From the COVID-19 pandemic to violent conflicts and natural disasters, being c ...More

EJ Insight2022-07-21

Is the US in recession?

On July 28, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth. The impending announcement has observers on the edge of their seats, wit ...More

EJ Insight2022-07-20

No net zero without nature

Businesses, investors, and governments that are serious about fulfilling net-zero emissions pledges before 2050 should be rushing to protect, conserve, and regenerate the natural resources and ecosyst ...More

EJ Insight2022-07-18

The varieties of climate-driven medical risk

When natural disasters force people to pack a bag and flee to safety, important items are often forgotten. Following California’s 2007 wildfire season, it was estimated that “at least one family membe ...More

EJ Insight2022-07-15

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